The Demographic Cliff and Your College Admissions Experience
How the declining number of high school graduates impacts the admissions journey
2025. This is the year we will begin to see a dramatic decline in high school graduate numbers which will last for several years. According to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, the end result of this trend will be a 13% reduction in graduates between 2024 and 2041. This decline will impact the entire country with 38 states likely to experience significant declines by 2041. California, New York and Illinois will see a 30% decline in graduates - a staggering number. A few small pockets of the country will see a modest increase in graduates. The South, led by Tennessee and South Carolina, is projected to see a 3% increase in graduates.
The impact of this demographic decline will undeniably influence admissions and enrollment at colleges and universities, and many of the best schools have been making plans and implementing changes in preparation for this shift. It is clear that some schools will be unable to absorb these declining numbers of applicants. The Federal Reserve, in a recent study, projected that if there is a 15% reduction in enrollment by 2029, which is very possible, the number of college closures would increase by 8% annually.
So what does this mean for today's college bound high school students? Well, although it may seem like this trend will make it easier to get into certain schools, the entire college admissions ecosystem is likely to undergo significant changes - some of which may be helpful for applicants, but some of which may not. In the wake of increased college closures, certain schools, for example, are likely to become more competitive and difficult to get into as they offer new incentives and programs or intentionally reduce their target enrollment numbers in an effort to mitigate cost. As these schools make changes to absorb this new reality, it is important to stay informed and have support throughout this process. There will be attractive new programs, recruitment strategies and financial packages, but it is essential that applicants keep a clear focus and target the right schools for them and formulate a strategy that accentuates their strengths and achievements. There may be some regions or schools across the country that become increasingly attractive to certain applicants – as we’ve seen significant increase in larger schools in the South and Midwest, and equally so, there is a likelihood that for various reasons, other schools lose favor, seem desperate or will be on precious footing. Keeping up to date with all these changes can be dizzying, yet essential.
The Demographic Cliff is real, is significant and will change the college admissions landscape for years to come. Those who ignore it risk diminishing opportunities while those who are equipped, informed and supported will benefit from the Demographic Cliff.
